Network NIO will lay off 10% -20%, the official said that the relevant information has not been received, it is difficult to break the ＂20,000 car curse＂

　　Red Star Capital Bureau news on November 2nd, 1st, some netizens broke the news in Maimai that NIO (09866.HK/NIO.US) started layoffs, ranging from 10% to 20%, involving multiple departments and positions. Employees certified as NIO Technology (Anhui) Co., Ltd. also confirmed the news on Maimai.

　　However, on the afternoon of November 2, the original post was deleted. NIO told the Red Star Capital Bureau that it had not received relevant information. A number of NIO front-line sales and marketing personnel also said that they had not heard of any layoffs.

　　NIO is hard to break "20,000 car spell"

　　On November 1, car companies disclosed sales in October. Li Auto (02015.HK/LI.US) has sold more than 40,000 vehicles a month; XPeng Motors (09868.HK/XPEV.US), which was once at the bottom, reversed the decline and broke through the 20,000 mark; AITO asked the single model to deliver more than 10,000 vehicles a month, holding 80,000 orders menacing; Zero car (09863.HK), extreme krypton cars have also set a monthly delivery record.

　　NIO delivered 16,000 vehicles in October, an increase of 2.77% month-on-month, still failing to reach the 20,000 mark. Li Bin, chairperson of NIO, previously announced: "Confident that sales will achieve 20,000 vehicles in a single month in the second half of the year". From January to October, NIO delivered a total of 126,000 new vehicles, and the annual delivery target (245,000 vehicles) was just over half.

　　In April and May, sales fell to more than 6,000 vehicles; at the end of May, the new ES6, known as the "hope of the whole village", began to be delivered, and in June NIO deliveries returned to 10,000 vehicles; on June 12, NIO announced a price reduction of 30,000 yuan for all new cars, and deliveries in July soared to 20,000 vehicles; but it fell again in August, and hovered around 16,000 vehicles in September and October.

　　Although there are remedies such as a price reduction of 30,000 yuan and the same price of ET5T and ET5, NIO still cannot escape the "20,000 car curse".

　　26,800 employees in 2022,

　　Over 11.20 billion yuan salary

　　At the end of last year, Li Bin said that "as long as the salary can be issued, it is easy to avoid layoffs." "Maintaining 100% of the people and completing 150% of the work, this should be what we should do."

　　However, in January this year, Li Bin’s letter to all staff mentioned the need to streamline the team. The letter pointed out that the team will continue to expand in 2022, but there are many cases of unclear responsibilities, inconsistent goals, imperfect processes, and repeated construction, and there is still much room for improvement in efficiency.

　　The 2022 annual report shows that NIO has 26,800 employees, ideally 19,400 employees, and Xiaopeng has 15,800 employees.

　　NIO paid more than 11.20 billion yuan in employee compensation in 2022, and if it layoffs 10% -20%, it can save about 11.2-22 40 million yuan.

　　As of June 30 this year, NIO’s cash reserves were 31.50 billion yuan, a decrease of 6.30 billion yuan from the first quarter. In July, NIO completed a $738.50 million strategic equity investment from Abu Dhabi investment institutions. On September 19, NIO announced its intention to issue a $1 billion convertible senior bond.

　　NIO’s material cash requirements due within one year, which mainly include capital commitments, operating and finance lease commitments, short-term and long-term bank borrowings, convertible bonds, and asset-backed securities and bonds, are $19.708 billion.

　　Self-developed chips, operating systems, mobile phones, batteries,

　　"All of it" is expensive

　　In the second quarter, NIO’s net loss was 6.056 billion yuan. According to the delivery volume of 54,600 vehicles in the first half of the year, NIO sold an average car at a loss of 200,000 yuan; the overall gross profit margin fell to 1%, 1.5% in the first quarter, and 13% in the same period last year. Li Bin postponed the break-even date from the fourth quarter of this year by less than one year.

　　In the third quarter, NIO’s sales increased by 135.74% to 55,400 vehicles, but the performance is not optimistic. Although NIO cancelled the free power exchange and reduced the owner’s rights, the remaining expenses are all "hard bones".

　　R & D investment cannot be saved. Smart cars are all about technology, and car companies are not hesitant to invest. NIO’s R & D expenses in the second quarter reached 3.345 billion yuan. Li Bin previously said that the average R & D expenses per quarter in 2023 will remain at 3 billion – 3.50 billion yuan.

　　Supplementary energy system also need to increase investment, which is the core competitiveness of NIO. NIO plans to build a total of more than 2,300 substation in 2023, according to the second generation station 150-2 million yuan construction cost calculation, to invest at least 3.45 billion yuan.

　　Service-related expenses are difficult to reduce. NIO’s positioning is a "user-based enterprise", and the ultimate service is the core of the brand and the competitiveness of differentiation.

　　"NIO wants everything, the stall is too big," Hao Liu, an independent automotive analyst, told Red Star Capital.

　　NIO’s self-developed chip "Yang Jian" was mass-produced in October, with a chip research and development team of 800 people; self-developed vehicle global operating system Tianshu SkyOS; NIO is currently the only new car manufacturer with a self-built mobile phone team, and NIO Phone has been listed.

　　Previously, NIO was also exposed to develop lithium manganese iron phosphate and 4680 batteries, and plans to mass-produce these two batteries to supply NIO (NIO) and its sub-brand Alps.

　　Li Bin mentioned in the third quarter of 2022 earnings call that NIO expects to invest 3 billion-4 billion yuan in sub-brands, batteries, chips, mobile phones and other related businesses in 2023, and will not stop investing in new businesses before the fourth quarter of 2023.

　　Will NIO be China’s future automaker?

　　According to data from the Passenger Federation, the number of passenger car companies in China was 82 by the end of 2022, and 64 by September 2023, a decrease of 18 in nine months.

　　The collapse of Weimar Automobile has sounded the alarm for the industry. Although the official denied the rumors that Chairperson Shen Hui ran overseas, saying that the company is actively saving itself and has not filed for bankruptcy, the fact is that Weimar Automobile has fallen behind in sales since 2022, selling one at a loss, financing difficulties, and the capital chain is broken.

　　Wang Xing, Meituan’s founder, predicted in early 2020: "China’s car companies are basically competing for the next two rounds of the ‘3 + 3 + 3 ‘competition. In addition to three central enterprises, three local state-owned enterprises and three private enterprises, the three new forces are Ideal, NIO and Xiaopeng."

　　This pattern may change, but it is an industry consensus that the number of Chinese automakers will be limited in the future.

　　At the 2023 China Automobile Chongqing Forum, Yin Tongyue, chairperson of Chery Automobile, Ding Lei, chairperson of Gaohe Automobile, Zhu Jiangming, chairperson of Zero Run Automobile, Ma Donghui, president of Li Auto, Yu Chengdong, executive director of Huawei, and Shen Feng, executive vice president of NIO, expressed their views on the future industry structure. They believe that there will be less than 10 Chinese car companies in the future, and maybe even less than or equal to 5.

　　The industry generally believes that 2024 will be the year of life and death for the auto market. Li Bin also said in late 2022 that 2024 is the final stage of the new energy vehicle industry. "We believe we have the qualification to participate in the finals."